Apple Watch: Fall Predictions

Ken — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 22:04:28 +0000

I usually wait until New Year's Day to make predictions, but I think there's a lot coming in the near future. Here's what I think will happen this fall.

New iPhone: 99% likely. Apple will stick to their yearly cycle and put out a phone with a taller display, 4G LTE, NFC, and a new dock connector. The rumor sites are all over the leaks from China, and I think they'll prove to be right.

iPad Mini: 75% likely. The tea leaves point in this direction... something like an 8" screen and a $300 price tag, to help reduce the "umbrella" for lower-priced products like the Kindle Fire. It makes too much sense not to be true.

New iMac: 75% likely. It's overdue for an upgrade and it remains Apple's primary desktop product. Apple won't cede the desktop market yet, especially with Windows PC manufacturers struggling so badly.

New iPods: 65% likely. It's a declining market but still important for Apple. I can see a shakeup in the lineup to help keep it relevant for the holidays.

13" Retina MacBook Pro: 55% likely. My gut says Apple wanted to have this out at the same time the 15" version came out, but supply chain constraints nixed that idea.

New Mac mini: 40% likely. It's a good entry-level product and in need of an update, but I can't help but think Apple eventually wants to do something else for the low-end market.

New Mac Pro: 20% likely. It's even more overdue for an update, but it's more of a niche product. I think a radical overhaul is coming in 2013, to replace both the existing Pro and the obsolete Server machine. Maybe a modular solution is coming.

Apple-branded television set: 20% likely. It's still churning around the rumor mill, but I think it's a ways out. A software update to the existing AppleTV to allow third-party apps seems like a likely short-term upgrade.