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Apple Watch: 2007 Predictions
Monday, 2007 January 1 - 12:48 pm
Recap of 2006 predictions, and new predictions for 2007.

First let's see how I did with my 2006 predictions:

1. PowerBooks will be the first Macs to get Intel processors.

I was close on this one. The iMac was technically rolled out first, but the MacBook Pro came out minutes later. I give myself half a point for this one.

2. Apple will introduce a living-room home entertainment device, but it won't be a media center Mac mini. It will be a low-cost peripheral of some kind that connects with the Mac. Or at most, a very-stripped-down computer. People don't need a general purpose computer connected to their TV. Not only is it a waste, but customers whose VCRs are still flashing 12:00 won't be interested in having a complicated computer in their living rooms.

Bingo. The "iTV", which will come out in 2007, was pretty much exactly what I had in mind. Full point.

3. Apple will upgrade the video iPod with a slightly larger screen, video out capability (perhaps even in high definition), and improved battery life. Heck, maybe this will be the home entertainment device. Oh, and videos will be made available in higher resolutions.

There was no true video iPod. We did get 640x480 video from iTunes, but I can't give myself any credit for this.

4. Apple will introduce new podcasting and video production software based on the iSight, with one-click publishing to the Internet.

Close. GarageBand has much improved podcasting support now, with close integration with mac.com. Half a point for this.

5. Apple will introduce an iPhone, in a partnership with Motorola; they won't go off and just make one on their own. It'll be more than just a phone with an iPod in it. It'll be a remote control for the computer, one that can even access your home Macintosh when you're on the road. Apple will design the exterior and the interface; Motorola will provide the actual cellular technology.

Nope. We still expect this to come in 2007.

6. Apple will NOT introduce a PDA or tablet Mac. PDAs are an oversaturated market. Tablets have been a big bust except in certain niche markets.

Bingo. Full point.

7. Apple will buy out TiVo.

No, but I wish they would.

8. Apple will announce a major partnership with Disney, or some other media company.

Yes. The iTunes Movie Store deal with Disney, to me, is a significant deal.

9. When Apple introduces Mac OS X 10.5 at the Worldwide Developer Conference this summer, it will have a radically new Finder and file management system; and, computer administration will be more highly automated (no complicated installations, no hunting for preference files, etc.) There will be instant startup and shutdown. Apple's goal will be to make a computer work more like an appliance. Windows Vista will look woefully antiquated in comparison, and "desktop Linux" even more so.

No. We didn't see any of this at the Leopard preview. Not to say that these features won't appear, but we haven't seen them yet.

10. Apple's stock will split after it reaches $100 a share.

No. Apple's stock took a beating from the stock option scandal and FUD over iPod sales.

So, I only get 4 out of 10 points.

* * *

Now, on to my 2007 predictions. But I won't talk about the iPhone, which has been analyzed to death already.

1. The iTV (which is now rumored to have the name "Mac Media Capsule", ugh) will have the ability to display high definition video. iTunes downloads might be just "near DVD quality", but HD is too important for Apple to omit. The iTV will depend on 802.11n wireless to get HD streaming. There will be no TV recording, though.

2. We will see a true video iPod with touchscreen capability and all kinds of added functionality. It will be kind of a PDA, with organizer functions and a handful of games, but Apple will market it as a video player first.

3. Mac Pro sales will boom after Apple cuts prices, and Adobe officially releases its Creative Suite 3.

4. Resolution independence will become a big deal for Apple, because Apple plans to put higher-resolution displays in MacBook Pros, and eventually its entire line of displays.

5. Three of the five computing product lines will see significant changes to their form factors. I think the three desktop lines are the prime candidates for refreshing.

6. Despite the continuing calls for a mini-tower Mac, Apple will stick with its current three-pronged strategy for desktops. But Mac Pro price cuts will make it tempting for "pro-sumer" users.

7. We will see more and more 3D animation in Apple's user interfaces. We're seeing the start of it with the iTunes CD cover art flipbook, and the Time Machine interface. Apple will start to see value in using 3D for visual cues... and that will make them start to tinker with 3D-capable video displays in its advanced research division. Maybe 2008 or 2009 will be the year of 3D.

8. iWork '07 will finally get a third program to supplement Pages and Keynote. It'll be a hybrid database and spreadsheet application of some sort.

9. Apple will start to emphasize home networking, and making it easier to manage sharing, backups, and so on. Apple, along with other computer manufacturers, will start to see home servers as a way to get more CPUs in every household. Apple will figure out that near-zero-maintenance home server appliance could be a major opportunity, especially coupled with the iTV.

10. Apple's stock will split after it reaches $100 a share. I'll try this one again.
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Posted by Ken in: techwatch

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