Real Kato Blog: Microsoft Milan

Microsoft introduces technology that's almost, dare I say, cool.

This week, Microsoft introduced a product idea called "surface computing". The idea is that you have a tabletop that's a projection computer screen; behind the screen, cameras can detect objects and touches, thus allowing user interaction. So you can manipulate images with your hands, or put a bar-coded object on the screen and have the computer identify it. In a demo, a camera was placed on the table, and photos spilled out of it.

It has the potential to be cool. Honestly, this is one of the few times I've been genuinely impressed by a Microsoft idea. So kudos to the Microsoft R&D division for coming up with this concept.

But I'm almost certain Microsoft will find a way to screw this up. They'll make it too complicated. They'll shoehorn applications onto it that don't fit. And while it will be able to do a thousand different things, only three of those things will actually be cheaper and easier on a surface computing platform. For example: sure, it'll be easy to resize a photo using your fingers. But what happens when you need to add a caption, to edit fine details, or to configure a printer? Your clumsy fingers will be a nuisance when you're doing anything other than macro-level work.

See, this is exactly the mistake Apple won't make. Apple won't expect your iPhone to be a general-purpose computing device. There's a very good reason for touch-screen technology on a handheld device. But on a tabletop? If you look at the tabletops in my house, there's junk on all of them. And often, dried cheese and diet Coke. I don't want my tabletops to be $5000 computing devices, especially if those devices are going to be no good for doing spreadsheets or playing games.

My prediction is that this will go a lot like tablet computing... there'll be people who want it, but it'll be a niche thing and no one will know exactly what to do with it. That is, until Apple comes along and makes it good.

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