Real Kato Blog: College Football 2021: Week 8 Recap and Week 9 Preview

Michigan wins; N.C. State and Penn State fall in upsets.

Michigan 33, Northwestern 7
The score of game was close at the half thanks to a bust by the Michigan defense, who allowed Northwestern RB Evan Hull to break through for a 75-yard touchdown run. But the remainder of Northwestern's rushing yards on the day? 25 yards on 22 attempts. The Michigan defense was stifling. Meanwhile, the offense bogged down for a while in the first half, but you can see that this is a body-blow type of offense, the kind designed to wear down defenses with a punishing ground game. Both Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins went over 100 yards, again, each scoring two touchdowns. Meanwhile Cade McNamara, who has been criticized by some fans for poor play of late, quietly went 20 for 27 for 129 yards. You can knock his lack of downfield accuracy, perhaps, but he made plays for third downs when they were needed and took care of the ball. He's the quintessential "game manager" type of quarterback; that might not be enough to beat Ohio State, but it'll be probably enough for everyone else on the schedule.

#6 Michigan at #8 Michigan State, 12:00 PM Fox
Well, here comes the highly anticipated matchup against the undefeated Spartans. How is MSU undefeated? Mostly on the strength of their defense, special teams, and a few big plays from transfer running back Kenneth Walker, who has 997 yards and nine touchdowns this year.

But let's dive into that a bit. 264 of those yards came against Northwestern. Against a competent run defense like Nebraska? 61 yards on 19 carries. Meanwhile quarterback Payton Thorne is a definite upgrade over former MSU quarterbacks like Rocky Lombardi; he's probably somewhere near par with Michigan starter Cade McNamara. And if the weakness in Michigan's defense remains at cornerback, so that's a concern. But still, I have to lean on the fact that MSU hasn't really played top-level defenses yet. I don't have a ton of belief in an MSU offense that only got 100 yards rushing (and 241 yards total) against Indiana.

The defense is good. They have a tough front seven led by DE Jacob Panasiuk, and a pair of good safeties in Xavier Henderson and Angelo Grose. But they're not Michigan-good, mind you: they're ceding over 400 yards a game, and really, they haven't played a many quality teams yet. The closest comp might be Nebraska, who racked up 194 yards rushing on 50 attempts (on the way to outgaining MSU 442-254 and still finding a way to lose the game). Is it luck? I gotta say... maybe.

I think Walker will get a big play or two. But I think the MSU offense will otherwise bog down, and in a dogfight where Michigan can pound away with its running game, I think Michigan wins the day.

Prediction: Michigan 33, Michigan State 17.

Penn State 18, Iowa 20 (9OT)
First of all, let's acknowledge that nine overtimes is a pretty remarkable thing. The new college overtime rule, in which the game becomes a sudden-death two-point conversion shootout starting with the third overtime, is terribly nerve-wracking.

But PSU should never have let it get to this point, playing against mediocre quarterback Artur Sitkowski for most of the day. Illinois pounded away for an alarming 357 yards on the ground, against just 38 yards in the air. Penn State knew the run was coming and still couldn't stop it. Meanwhile, the real weakness of the PSU team, its rushing offense, was exposed; Penn State managed just 62 yards on 29 carries. Excluding -28 yards of sacks, that's still just 90 yards. Illinois just ceded 391 yards rushing to Wisconsin. It's a problem that PSU simply can't run the ball. I haven't looked closely at the film, but I gotta think it's an offensive line issue. Meanwhile, a clearly limited Sean Clifford, who didn't get much practice after coming back from his injury, didn't get much done through the air, either, throwing for just 4.9 YPA.

So, PSU fans, I feel for you. It's an ugly loss. The team is better than it showed here, but there are real problems that need to get fixed and quickly. Michigan fans know exactly what that's like. Unfortunately, things might get worse before they get better, because...

#20 Penn State at #5 Ohio State, 7:30 PM ABC
So, uh oh. Ohio State is shredding opponents with its offense; at 559 YPG the offense is #1 in the country. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has already thrown for 1965 yards and 22 touchdowns. Running back TreVeyon Henderson is running for 8.8 YPC. Ohio State is favored by 18 points.

Is there any hope? Well... they did lose once, to Oregon, in a game where they gave up 505 yards on defense. But that was the game that caused OSU to reshuffle its defensive staff, and the now the defense is playing better. Indiana's total yards? 128.

Still, OSU's offensive numbers are inflated by its weak schedule to date. There is certainly not a defense anywhere near PSU's caliber among the teams they've played so far. If the PSU defense can stay with OSU's explosive receivers and limit big plays, they can maybe limit the damage enough for the offense to keep pace. The OSU secondary still might be its vulnerability, so with a fully healthy Sean Clifford and some playmaking out of Jahan Dotson, I'm saying there's a chance.

That's not to say I'm optimistic. But I'm just hoping PSU can put in a good show out there.

Prediction: Ohio State 38, Penn State 17.

N.C. State 30, Miami 31
Well, that happened. Almost right on cue, as soon as I started talking up State's championship chances, they let a freshman quarterback rip them for 325 yards and four touchdowns. The offense played well enough to win, but Miami made just a few more plays. It probably didn't help when top linebacker Isaiah Moore went down with an injury (he'll be out for the season). There was also a strange sequence where NCSU recovered a fumble, but was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct because Anthony Smith's helmet came off during the play, negating the turnover.

So maybe it's a bit of bad luck, and maybe this young Miami team is better than they've shown early in the season. But ugh. State needs to win these kinds of games if they ever want to get to the next level. State still controls its own destiny in the ACC Atlantic; if they can win out (including getting a win over surprisingly undefeated Wake Forest on November 13th) then they'll be in the ACC title game.

N.C. State vs Louisville, 7:30 PM ACCN
This is a dangerous Louisville team, even at 4-3. After an opening loss to a good Ole Miss team, their other two losses were by three points to Wake Forest and two points to Virginia. The offense is capable of putting up yards and points.

The Louisville defense isn't great, ceding 423 yards per game, so unless the NCSU defense improves, we can perhaps expect another high-scoring affair. A key in this game is whether State can get its running game going and control the ball. Keeping the Louisville offense off the field will be the best defense for State.

It's a home game, and at night, so that'll help State's chances a bit. I think this could be a nail-biter, but I think home field pushes them State just over the edge.

Prediction: N.C. State 31, Louisville 30.

Notable Results
#14 Coastal Carolina suffered its first loss, falling to App State 30-27. #2 Cincinnati held off Navy 27-20. #3 Oklahoma was down 10-0 at the half to one-win Kansas, but rallied to win 35-23. #8 Oklahoma State was upset by Iowa State 24-21. #10 Oregon squeaked by UCLA 34-31.

#12 Ole Miss beat LSU 31-17. #13 Notre Dame beat USC 31-16. #16 Wake Forest beat Army in an exhausting 70-56 shootout. (Playing the military academies is always perilous.) #22 San Diego State remains undefeated, beating Air Force 20-14. #23 Pitt remains atop the ACC Coastal, beating struggling Clemson 27-17. Wisconsin knocked off Purdue 30-13, keeping themselves in the thick of the Big Ten West race. Minnesota beat Maryland 34-13.

Games to Watch on TV
Your Game of the Week is the UM-MSU game on Fox at noon. (ESPN agrees; they're bringing College Gameday to East Lansing.) But #9 Iowa at Wisconsin on ESPN will also be one to watch. Meanwhile Texas is at #16 Baylor on ABC and Miami is at Pitt on ACCN, so yeah, there's a lot going on at noon.

At 3:30, #1 Georgia plays upset-minded Florida on CBS. Texas Tech just fired its coach but still might give #4 Oklahoma a run for its money; that game is on ABC. Purdue is at Nebraska on ESPN2.

At 7:00, #10 Ole Miss plays #18 Auburn on ESPN. #12 Kentucky is at Mississippi State on SECN.

At 7:30, the big matchup between #20 Penn State and #5 Ohio State is on ABC. The NCSU vs Louisville game is on ACCN. UNC is at #11 Notre Dame on NBC.

Finally, there's a decent nightcap game as Washington plays at Stanford on FS1 at 10:30 PM.

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