Real Kato Blog: CFB 2024: Week 1

Michigan grunts by Fresno State, and faces Texas next.

Michigan 30, Fresno State 10
In some ways, this game was utterly predictable. On offense, there were struggles everywhere. The defensive front was dominant, but the secondary showed a few holes.

Let's talk offense first. The good news: QB Davis Warren got the start over Orji and he seemed... fine? I'm concerned about his arm strength and accuracy on deep balls, but as a game manager, he seemed about the level of a Cade McNamara, and that will be enough. And he's got a safety blanket in TE Colston Loveland, who is looking like an NFL first-rounder. Loveland creates matchup problems everywhere. He's too fast to be covered by linebackers and too big to be covered by safeties or corners. I think he'll have a stellar year.

But I have concerns, dude. Backup QB Alex Orji still doesn't look like he's a reliable passer. No receiver other than Loveland showed much of an ability to get open. Pass blocking was suspect; they were prone to misidentifying blocking assignments and allowing rushers to come free. Run blocking was slightly better, but Donovan Edwards failed to find space inside. Michigan did better with Kalel Mullings in. Mullings seems better suited to finding yards in tight spaces; Edwards needs the line to deliver him to a one-on-one against a safety to break a home run. I think we'll see Mullings become RB1, with Edwards used more as a receiver than an inside runner.

On defense, the line was as dominant as we thought they'd be. We knew the DTs would be good, but the DEs were equally strong. At linebacker, I was in awe of Jaishawn Barham: he was huge and fast and terrifying, and I think he'll start hearing his name a lot more often. The secondary was... adequate? The backups got a lot of snaps in this game, probably so the Michigan coaches could evaluate them for future games. They gave up some plays, yes, but didn't seem completely overmatched. Caveat: we're talking Fresno State here, a mid-level team that doesn't have Ohio State-level talent at WR. Take all the grains of salt.

We do have to talk about new DC Wink Martindale's cover 0 blitz that gave up the touchdown. First of all: why are you running that blitz at all? Michigan's front was getting pressure with regularity without a blitz. The Fresno State QB was getting rid of the ball in a hurry all game, so it's unlikely the blitz would have got home. And you had the nickel back playing in off coverage, making for an easy pitch and catch completion. Perhaps the safety (Jaden McBurrows) missed the assignment? I dunno. But I hope Martindale learned a lesson here... blitzing is a dicey proposition in the college game, because you can't expect everyone in the secondary to have lockdown coverage.

#10 Michigan vs. #3 Texas, Saturday 12:00 PM Fox
Texas is coming off a 52-0 win over Colorado State, and yes, they are probably that good. They return a ton of talent on offense, and the passing attack will likely gash Michigan many times. We can only hope that the defensive front makes Texas one-dimensional and allows the pass rush to get home.

Offensively, what we're hoping for is improvement along the offensive line. There's obviously some ability there, but they haven't really seemed like a cohesive unit. Hopefully playing a full game at 100% speed and watching some film will allow them to correct some errors.

But while the defense might keep Michigan in the game for a while, I can't believe that the offense will score enough points to keep up with Texas.

Prediction: Michigan 20, Texas 38.

Notable Results
N.C. State got by Western Carolina 38-21, but didn't look great. Transfer QB Grayson McCall had timing issues with his receivers and didn't flash a lot of arm strength.

#8 Penn State put away West Virginia 34-12 in a rain-soaked game with a lengthy weather delay.

Florida State was upset in week 0 and in week 1, losing to Georgia Tech and Boston College. These don't look like flukes... FSU has a bunch of problems.

#1 Georgia crushed #14 Clemson 34-3. Looking like a down year for the ACC; maybe this gives NCSU some hope?

#3 Oregon got by a not-great Idaho team 24-14. The Ducks racked up lots of yards, but were hurt by turnovers and failed third- and fourth-down conversions.

#7 Notre Dame beat #20 Texas A&M 23-13 in an entertaining back-and-forth game.

#19 Miami spanked Florida 41-17.

#23 USC came from behind to beat #13 LSU in a wild 27-20 game.

Colorado squeaked by North Dakota State 31-26. Still not a believer in Colorado.

Games to Watch on TV
Fri Sep 6:
Duke @ Northwestern, 9:00 PM FS1

Sat Sep 7:
#3 Texas @ #10 Michigan, 12:00 PM Fox
Bowling Green @ #8 Penn State, 12:00 PM BTN
Iowa State @ #21 Iowa, 3:30 PM CBS
Michigan State @ Maryland, 3:30 PM BTN
#14 Tennessee @ #24 NC State, 7:30 PM ABC
Colorado @ Nebraska, 7:30 PM NBC

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Posted by Ken in: sports

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