Real Kato Blog: CFB 2024: Week 3

Michigan gets by Arkansas State, but makes a change at QB.

Michigan 28, Arkansas State 18
This wasn't really all that close, as Arkansas State scored a couple of late touchdowns against Michigan's third string defense. Up to that point, Michigan had largely stuffed ArkSt's offense into a box, thanks to monstrous play by the defensive line.

There are still problems, though. Michigan gave up some long third down conversions early, signaling continuing issues in the defensive secondary. More concerning is the quarterback situation, as Davis Warren threw three interceptions before being benched in favor of Alex Orji.

Orji has been announced as the starter against USC, and... I dunno, man. Orji brings a new dimension to the offense with his running ability, and he certainly has a strong enough arm, but we haven't seen anything to suggest that he can direct much beyond a rudimentary passing attack.

The rushing attack gained some traction, but we can't really read much into that, given the quality of the opponent. I still believe Kalel Mullings should be RB1 in this offense... he lacks the game-breaking acceleration of Donovan Edwards, but his ability to read his blocks seems clearly superior. Edwards, to his credit, also showed improvement; several times I saw him press gaps before making cuts, which opened up lanes by misdirecting linebackers. But I think Edwards would be more valuable as a slot receiver or even a wideout; we could emphasize his abilities in space by getting him outside the tackle box.

#18 Michigan vs. #11 USC, 3:30 PM CBS
USC is just a five point favorite in this game, but this is a scary opponent for Michigan. USC tilts heavily towards the passing game, and I don't think Michigan has the bodies at defensive back to keep up with USC's tall and athletic receivers. If Arkansas State can make 3rd-and-20 conversions against Michigan's defense, I don't expect USC's offense to have much trouble making 2nd-and-8.

Michigan's game plan will probably be something out of the 1980s: try to keep USC's offense off the field with a run-focused option attack. No doubt USC will play heavily against the run with Orji at the helm, and Michigan will need to pull out screens and RPOs to keep that in check. Will it work? It's the kind of strategy MAC teams use against superior opponents, and Michigan's defense should hold up slightly better than your average MAC opponent. But I just don't see Michigan keeping USC bottled up for four quarters. I expect to see Michigan get beat on long downfield passes several times. If it happens early, and Michigan has to play catch-up, I don't see how Michigan can win.

Prediction: Michigan 18, USC 31.

Notable Results
N.C. State had to rally to get by a mediocre Louisiana Tech team, eventually winning 30-20. But the Wolfpack have also announced a change at starting QB, with freshman CJ Bailey to replace Grayson McCall. McCall was injured during the Louisiana Tech game, but it's not obvious to me that that's the reason for the change. McCall has been struggling all season.

#1 Georgia didn't look much like a #1 team, having to rally from behind to beat a weak Kentucky team 13-12. Kentucky outgained Georgia 284-262 and for the most part looked like the better team.

#2 Alabama demolished Wisconsin 42-10.

#9 Oregon looks like they're finding traction; they beat Oregon State 49-14.

#18 Notre Dame rebounded from last week's upset to trounce Purdue 66-7.

Florida State's dismal season continues; they lost to Memphis 20-12 to drop to 0-3.

Games to Watch on TV
Friday, Sep 20:
#24 Illinois at #22 Nebraska, 8:00 PM Fox

Saturday, Sep 21:
N.C. State at #21 Clemson, 12:00 PM ABC
Kent State at #10 Penn State, 3:30 PM BTN
#11 USC at #18 Michigan, 3:30 PM CBS
UCLA at #16 LSU, 3:30 PM ABC
Georgia Tech at #19 Louisville, 3:30 PM ESPN2
#12 Utah at #14 Oklahoma State, 4:00 PM Fox
#6 Tennessee at #15 Oklahoma, 7:30 PM ABC

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Posted by Ken in: sports

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