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Apple Watch: 2010 Predictions
Friday, 2010 January 1 - 10:41 am
Happy New Year, everyone. It's time for my annual rundown of Apple predictions.

First, let's look back at my 2009 predictions.

1. Apple netbook, NO. Full point. This is a category that Apple still hates: low-margin, under-featured products.

2. Quad-core 17" MacBook Pro, YES. Half a point? Apple did come out with a 17" MacBook Pro in January, but it still has a dual-core processor, not a quad-core.

3. iPhone nano, YES. Zero points. Instead, Apple made the entry level price of the iPhone $99, making it accessible to many more customers.

4. End of the iPod classic, YES.. Zero points. The horrifically dated 160GB iPod classic still sits there for sale at $249.

5. Radically new Mac mini, YES. Zero points. The Mac mini was updated (hurray) but the form factor was unchanged.

6. Cloud computing applications, YES. Half a point. iWork.com is Apple's entry into cloud computing, but it's a very limited dip into the market. Based on Apple job postings, it looks like there'll be more in this area in the future, but it didn't really happen in 2009.

7. Blu-Ray, NO. Full point. Blu-Ray has finally cleaned up some of its licensing messes, but Apple's still leery of it.

8. AppleTV expansion, YES. Zero points. But a $30/month subscription service is still in the rumor pipeline, and we may see it soon.

9. Steve Jobs staying healthy, YES. Half a point. Though Steve Jobs remained the CEO and is now back in full form, he did have to take a six-month leave of absence to address his health issues.

10. Stock price target: $140. Half a point. The stock did climb to $140... and zoomed past it to $200.

So, just four for ten last year. Not so good. Now, onto the 2010 predictions.

1. iSlate, YES. I've been skeptical of this product for many years, and the reasons remain the same. But the rumor mill is insistent that the product is for real this time, and that it will come as soon as January. But I think it'll be a bust if it's a $1000 web surfing device; if there's no killer app (video phone? portable internet TV?), and if Apple doesn't figure out a way to make it affordable (subscription-subsidized pricing?) then it's the Newton all over again. With rumors that Apple is planning a 10-million unit production run, that should mean that Apple has a surprise up its sleeve. John Gruber thinks Apple is aiming to redefine personal computing entirely; he might be onto something there.

2. Subscription AppleTV, YES. I think this time it's going to happen. With all the discord between content providers and cable companies, it's a great time for someone to jump in with an alternative delivery mechanism. Cable companies may retaliate with bandwidth caps on internet service.

3. iPhone on Verizon, NO. I think the only way iPhone appears on a non-GSM carrier is if the carrier moves to 4G, and that will take a while. Plus, I'm sure Apple is steamed at Verizon's Droid marketing: Verizon is doing its best to burn its Apple bridges, and they're succeeding. If AT&T exclusivity does come to an end, expect T-Mobile to be the next carrier to support the iPhone.

4. New iPhone mapping application, YES. The rift between Apple and Google is widening, and Apple won't want to be dependent on Google Maps for much longer. Apple's acquisition of mapping company Placebase in July seems to indicate that Apple intends to do something. With Google offering more features in its Android-based mapping programs and limiting Apple from doing the same, Apple will want to go its own way.

5. A new content production capability in iWork or iLife, YES. One of the things Apple has always done is enabled end users to be content producers, not just content consumers. If the iSlate supports some kind of e-magazine format, you can expect to see an application that allows creating and editing that format too, so ordinary folks can make their own "blogzines". Imagine publishing your blog, your photos, and your videos in a neatly-packaged, beautifully-typeset, visually immersive format... your MSWord-based family newsletter will seem woefully dated once this comes out.

6. Revamped MacBook Air, YES. The expensive ultra-portable market has kind of dried up with the advent of netbooks, so Apple will probably want to do something new. The Air may go away entirely, or perhaps Apple will make it even smaller and cheaper.

7. Desktop line revamp, NO. I think Apple is happy with its desktop lineup, and doesn't see a pressing need for R&D spending in this area. Expect to see the usual speed bumps and a continued progression towards Nehalem CPUs, but otherwise, the desktops should remain pretty much the same.

8. Blu-Ray, YES. This could go either way, but I think Apple will finally succumb and offer Blu-Ray drives on all their computers. Blu-Ray is starting to supplant DVD and is becoming a commodity item, and Apple won't want to look like they're behind the times.

9. End of the iPod classic, YES. For reals this time. Apple is extremely happy with its iPod touch, and when the touch gets a camera and a 128GB drive, the reasons for having a classic will dry up completely. Next on Apple's agenda: how to stop people from calling the iPod touch "iTouch".

10. Stock price target: $240. This will depend heavily on whether the iSlate succeeds or not. I think the stock will nosedive on any hint that the product is a bust, but as the product becomes a modest success and Apple continues to post blowout profits, the stock will recover.
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Posted by Ken in: techwatch

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