Real Kato Blog: The Debate, Round 2 Results

Tuesday was the Vice Presidential debate between Dick Cheney and John Edwards. We all expected a dogfight, and we were right.

Right off the bat, Cheney is scowling and Edwards is smiling. Looks like everyone is going to stay in character.

Cheney - (A general rambling question about happenings in Iraq.)
This is a softball for Cheney. Cheney immediately cites the expected buzzwords: "9/11", "terrorism", "safe harbor for terrorists", "state-sponsored terror", "weapons of mass destruction", "making progress". Edwards gives the expected rebuttal, saying Iraq is a mess, the administration is not being truthful about it, and there's no connection between Iraq and al Qaeda. It's hard to say whether either person addressed the question because I couldn't tell what the question was. Edwards 3, Cheney 3.

Edwards - If you were president, would Saddam Hussein still be in power?
Edwards, perhaps sensing a trap, doesn't really answer this question, but says we would have done it the "right way", we wouldn't have been distracted from al Qaeda, and then strongly makes the point that Iraq had no connection with 9/11. Hooray! But Cheney gives a pretty good response: he says Iraq is connected with terror in general. Now Cheney mentions Kerry's "global test" thing and states bluntly that Kerry and Edwards are not prepared to handle national defense issues. Ooh. Edwards 3, Cheney 3.

Cheney - What is your plan to capture Osama Bin Laden and neutralize al Qaeda?
Cheney talks vaguely about progress in Afghanistan, and accuses Edwards of pessimism. Edwards goes back to refute the "global test" thing, then cites problems in Afghanistan with drug trafficking and security. In the followup, Cheney talks about El Salvador while Edwards talks about Iran and North Korea. Um, hello? Gwen Ifill can't be pleased. Edwards 2, Cheney 2.

Edwards - Talk about Kerry's "global test".
Edwards says that Kerry was talking about telling the truth, and leading the world by being credible. It's a thoughtful response. Cites figures saying U.S. bears 90% of coalition casualties, 90% of cost of war, monetary cost of $200 billion. Cheney denies the 90% figure, because he counts Iraqi casualties and counts cases where international loans to Iraq were forgiven; he also denies the $200 billion figure and says it's $120 billion. (Fact check here: Edwards is right that the U.S. bears 90% of the coalition casualties... it's hard to argue that Iraq was a member of an international coalition to invade itself. The $200 billion figure includes money that will be spent in the next year, so $120 billion would be accurate if we pulled out of Iraq today.) Cheney talks about flip-flopping some more. Edwards 3, Cheney 3.

Cheney - Will it be a dangerous thing to have Kerry as president?
This is similar to a trap laid for Bush. Cheney, like Bush, doesn't fall for it. He says he doesn't challenge Kerry's patriotism, but he does challenge Kerry's judgment. He cites votes against armaments, the gulf war, and accuses Kerry of flip-flopping during the primary in order to win the nomination.
Edwards has a great response, pointing out that Cheney voted against the same armaments that Kerry did, and also sets the record straight on the $87 billion Iraq bill that Kerry supposedly "flip-flopped" on. Edwards 4, Cheney 3.

Edwards - Is it naive to think that France and Germany will help in internationalizing the Iraqi effort?
Edwards sidesteps this question and says the current administration certainly hasn't done the job. He says the Iraqi effort is understaffed, that the training is poor, and attacks administration for not providing sufficient body armor for combat troops. (This isn't precisely true; the troops had body armor, just not the latest technology.) Cheney calls the Democratic plan an "echo" of the Republican plan; claims our coalition is just as great as what we had in the first Gulf war; accuses Edwards and Kerry of demeaning the contribution of our allies, demeaning Allawi, and demeaning the Iraqi security forces. It's a dirty shot, and it riles Edwards a bit. Things are getting a little ugly. Edwards 2, Cheney 2.

Edwards - How do we know we will have the right intelligence in the future to do the right thing?
Edwards and Cheney are both clearly not interested in this question, and they go back to arguing about Iraq. He says what the Republicans say about Iraq doesn't match what people see (a good argument). Talks about Bush's opposition to the 9/11 commission and the Department of Homeland Security. Cheney starts talking about connection between Zarqawi and Hussein. Edwards 3, Cheney 3.

Cheney - Should U.S. companies should be allowed to do business with Iran? Should we lift sanctions?
Cheney says sanctions shouldn't be unilateral, and that the Iran situation is different from Iraq because Iran hasn't violated the U.N. for twelve years. He then cites Libya, implying that U.S. aggression in Iraq caused Libya to back down. Edwards has a good zinger here: "Sixty countries have al Qaeda; how many of them are we going to invade?" Now Edwards talks about Halliburton (of course) and how it's under investigation for bribery and other scandals. Here's a precious moment: Cheney says the Halliburton charges are a smokescreen and refers people to "factcheck.com". Two funny things: he meant to say factcheck.org. factcheck.com is an advertising site, and faced with a torrent of traffic, decided to redirect people to the decidedly anti-Bush web site hosted by billionare George Soros. Meanwhile, factcheck.org contains a number of articles indicting misleading statements made by the Bush administration, and does not refute Edwards' statements about Halliburton! Edwards 3, Cheney 2.

Edwards - Is the U.S. absent from the Israel/Palestine conflict, and what would you do about it?
Edwards strongly defends Israel's right to defend themselves here. That was a bit of a surprise; Israel's war-hawkish positions are pretty close to Bush's. Edwards backs up his stance with a personal story about how he was close to where a suicide bomber blew up Sbarro. (Free advertising for Sbarro!) He says the U.S. should help the withdrawal from the Gaza strip, and then confront Iran and Saudi Arabia about their terror ties. Cheney goes back to the Halliburton thing and again calls it a smokescreen; now attacks Edwards for being absent from the Senate, talks about Saddam Hussein paying for suicide bombers. Edwards comes right back and attacks Cheney's voting record in the House (opposed Head Start, Meals on Wheels, release of Nelson Mandela). Sheesh, this is getting really ugly. Edwards 3, Cheney 1.

Cheney - What will you do to help poor people (like those in Cleveland)?
Cheney talks about creating jobs by "making America the best place in the world to do business". He talks about reducing litigation costs in a thinly-veiled barb at Edwards, then talks about improving education and public schools via the "No Child Left Behind" Act. Edwards chides Cheney for talking about education instead of jobs; he cites numbers regarding job losses and poverty, pointing out that it's the first administration since Hoover to lose jobs. Claims the administration is in favor of outsourcing jobs (a bit of a stretch). Cheney comes back and talks up the benefits of tax cuts, and criticizes the lack of Democratic progress in Medicare reform during the Clinton years. (That was mostly due to Republican obstructionism, but whatever.) Edwards lays the bottom line: incomes are down while the cost of living is up. Edwards 3, Cheney 2.

Edwards - How can Kerry cut the deficit and guarantee not raising taxes on those making less than $200,000 a year?
Edwards says it's a moral responsibility (his emphasis) not to leave trillions in debt to our children. He promises only rolling back taxes on those making more than $200,000, and talks about further cuts on taxes for the middle class. Doesn't really address the original question, though. Cheney comes back and says Kerry voted for tax increases 98 times (a blatant misrepresentation, as Cheney would know if he actually went to factcheck.org). He claims that lots of small businesses would be hit by personal income tax (not really true), and that Kerry wants to give government more control over people's lives. He talks about using fiscal restraint to cut the deficit but doesn't give details. Edwards, in his rebuttal, says Kerry sponsored or voted in favor of 600 tax cuts. Cheney mentions Bush's highly publicized signing of a tax cut package earlier in the day, and notes that Kerry and Edwards were not present for the vote. Edwards 3, Cheney 3.

Cheney - Can you explain the administration's support for the amendment banning gay marriage?
Cheney says "freedom" is different from having the government "sanction" certain actions. (I'm not sure I see the distinction there.) Hmm. Edwards briefly talks about the tax thing ("value work, not wealth"); then praises the Cheneys for embracing their gay daughter. Edwards says he supports defining marriage as between a man and a woman, but supports legal rights for gay couples (thus taking the mainstream view). But makes the point that the issue is an election-year topic meant to divide people. Edwards 4, Cheney 2.

Edwards - Are you trying to have it both ways on the gay marriage issue?
(So to speak.) Edwards says gay/lesbian couples deserve respect and legal benefits. A good safe answer. He says the constitutional amendment is a political tool. Cheney has absolutely no response except to thank Edwards for the kind words about his daughter! Maybe that's smart. Edwards 4, Cheney 1.

Cheney - Is Edwards (a trial lawyer) part of the problem of higher medical costs?
Cheney laughs (I think his face almost cracked). Cheney is delicate here; he talks about rising malpractice insurance rates, and doctors who avoid high-risk cases due to fear of litigation. He says we need a cap on punitive damages and a cap on lawyers' fees. Edwards, surprisingly, agrees that there are too many frivolous lawsuits. Very smart! His solution is to have a merit test for lawsuits and hold the lawyers responsible for the costs of anything frivolous. Hmm. Edwards 4, Cheney 4.

Edwards - Do you feel personally attacked by this talk about trial lawyers?
It's Edwards' turn to laugh. The tension seems to have eased somewhat; maybe it was all that lesbian talk. Anyway, Edwards says malpractice is a tiny factor in rising health care costs (0.5%). He cites other rising costs, including the public and unpopular 17% increase in Medicare premiums. (Careful here; this could backfire.) He then talks about standing up to the drug companies and the insurance companies; this goes back to his populist appeal. Cheney restates earlier arguments about tort reform and liability insurance, but the argument has lost some luster now. Oh, Cheney dings Edwards: he states that the 17% increase in Medicare was due to a process instituted in 1997 which Kerry voted for. Hmm. He loses all his momentum, though, by saying that tax loopholes allowed Edwards to make money while costing the health care system. Edwards blasts him by saying Cheney surely took advantage of tax breaks while he was CEO of Halliburton. Cheney doesn't rebut this; he just talks about the prescription drug benefit. Edwards 3, Cheney 3.

Cheney - What should the government's role be in fighting AIDS?
Gwen Ifill cites figures that say AIDS affects African-American women thirteen times more than other groups. Is that right? Both candidates seem surprised. Cheney says the Bush is concerned about it, and cites $15 billion in support for the international fight against AIDS. (Of which, only $2 billion was suggested in this year's budget by the Bush administration.) Edwards says we're not doing enough, and that $15 billion is not enough. He makes the case that lack of universal health care coverage is a large part of the problem. I don't know if people will get the connection there. Edwards 2, Cheney 2.

Edwards - What qualifies you to be vice president?
It's a stab at Edwards' lack of experience. Edwards discounts the experience factor; says people want an administration that keeps them safe, has good judgment, and tells the truth. It's a clear message, and a good one. He says that a long résumé doesn't mean good judgment. He says he would stop nuclear proliferation and improve the military; is that an attempt to show he'd make a good leader? Hmm. Cheney says his best advantage is that he doesn't have his own political aspirations, so he's a better team player. Edwards 3, Cheney 2.

Cheney - Without mentioning the names Bush or Kerry, what personally makes you different from the other VP candidate?
(What is this, a slumber party game?) Cheney talks more about similarities between them; he mentions humble beginnings and choosing a life of public service. Now he's rambling a bit: he talks about living under the threat of nuclear weapons, and going through 9/11. What? Edwards doesn't do any better; he doesn't talk about Cheney at all, and mentions Kerry twice. Bzzt. Edwards 0, Cheney 0.

Edwards - What's wrong with "flip-flopping"?
This is actually a great softball for Edwards to explain "nuances", but he doesn't bite. Instead, he says Kerry has been consistent, but that Bush has been flip-flopping; he attacks instead of defending. Perhaps a good strategy. He mentions the 9/11 commission, the Department of Homeland Security, the $2 trillion Social Security bailout, combat pay for troops, health care, underfunding of "No Child Left Behind", and the patients' bill of rights. Whew! Cheney goes back and rehashes Kerry flip-flops. Now he says we shouldn't put more troops in Iraq! What? He cites increases in education spending; Edwards immediately nails him by saying it's an underfunded mandate. Cheney now says Kerry and Edwards are "against" the No Child Left Behind act; where'd he get that? So no one defended flip-flopping. Edwards 3, Cheney 2.

Cheney - How will you bridge the deep divide in the country (in the way you couldn't for the last four years)?
Cheney cites No Child Left Behind and the Patriot Act as examples of bipartisanship. He says we just have to continue to "work it". He laments that things used to be better, and that perhaps having an even balance in Congress is part of the trouble. He cites Zell Miller, that barking mad idiot, as an example of reaching across the aisle. Edwards gets his best line in here: "Bush promised to be a uniter, not a divider... have you ever seen America more divided?" He says Republicans are directly to blame for the divisions. Now Edwards works in some quick words about health care; too bad, that diluted a really great response. Edwards 4, Cheney 2.

Total score: Edwards 59, Cheney 45.

Edwards closing statement is folksy and charming. "The bright light of America is flickering, and the administration doesn't see it". Kerry and Edwards have a plan for jobs, health care, homeland security, and iraq. Give us the power to fight for you. Cheney's closing statement is businesslike. He cites the importance of health care, Social Security, and schools; he talks about 9/11, terrorism, and says the Bush plan is the only viable option.

Watching this debate, it seemed close, and had it not been for Cheney's lack of response on the lesbian question, it would have been really close. I think Edwards actually could have scored better if he hadn't been trying so hard to work in talking points, and if he'd just answered questions more directly. Cheney could have done better if he hadn't been so mean.

All in all, I doubt this will have much bearing on the overall race. But it was interesting to watch anyway: the debate was issue-oriented and, aside from a few inane questions, pretty thoughtful.

Next debate on Friday. I'm going to be out of town, so I won't get to see it live! I expect it won't be too different from the first debate, except that Bush will probably be much more careful to maintain his composure.

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